In Part One, I pointed out that, despite all the talk about making the US energy independent, we cannot separa. te ourselves from the vast world infrastructure of energy needs and economic interdependence.
In Part Two, I pointed out that there are vast infrastructures for the generation and distribution of electricity. Also, that the non-petroleum power capabilities that people are talking about now—solar, wind, nuclear, along with hydro-systems like dams and geothermal energy—are only means to generate electricity. (Petroleum products, natural gas, and especially coal are also used in copious amounts to generate electricity.)
THE PROBLEM
The world uses over 80-million barrels of oil every day. (Of that total, the US uses over 20-million barrels a day.) By 2030, it may rise to over 140-million barrels per day for the world, and we will have our share of that need. India and China (and others) will be using a much higher percentage than they do now because of increased vehicle use.
Right now, the US uses about 24% of its daily over 20-million barrels of oil for non-transportation and non-electricity needs. These are products people use all the time, day in and day out. One of the interesting lists I found of some of these is:
Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes, Yarn.
Many of the products listed will continue to require petroleum to make them, comprising several million barrels of oil a day we will need into far the future regardless of what else we do.
So far as transportation is concerned, changing automobiles into electric plug-in cars is one thing; changing trucks, freight trucks, heavy duty vehicles and equipment, trains, ships, emergency vehicles, military vehicles, and so forth into electric-powered vehicles is a whole different thing. And aircraft of all kinds is even more problematic.
In just the US, we have about 240-millon cars and light trucks. If we retooled our car factories, and the only cars we manufactured in the future were electric or hybrids, it would take almost two decades to come up with replacements just for what we have now. And that would be if people could afford them, and we had the electric grid infrastructure we would need to “plug-in” when we needed to. It would require extremely rapid development of electric generating plants with wind and nuclear power. But look at the timetables from those who plan to develop more electric generation, who plan to develop the grid that will be necessary. They plan on years of work before this could be finished. (Look at T. Boone Pickens’ timetables at his site.)
The US would still need petroleum products for cars for a couple of decades! Even if we work miracles in time and effort.
And what would we do about the current investment we have in the cars we own? We can’t just dump them by the side of the road and step away. Most people who own cars and light trucks are still paying for them. If they change to electric or hybrids, what do they do with the vehicle they already have? It is the norm for people to sell their current vehicle when they buy another. To move all of us into electric cars, we will have to junk our other cars, losing the asset we have in them. Where will we put 240-million of them? This will be a tremendous problem.
And that is just for autos and light trucks. What about electricity for large vehicles, including trains and ships? The extremely powerful fuel cell batteries that exist today cost tens of thousands of dollars. Large vehicles that are called electric, right now, actually use a fossil fuel (mostly diesel) to generate the electricity on the vehicle. Aircraft use jet fuel, a petroleum product, now and into the future. Changes from this will take more than decades for these vehicles.
Moreover, emergency generators, emergency vehicles and heavy equipment, will continue to require large amounts of petroleum products. Earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tornados, major blackouts, and other emergencies—problems that will require petroleum products will continue throughout the world during any transition to alternative fuels, and we will not be able to “plug-in” in most of the world. We will need vehicles that can use local petroleum products, or the petroleum we will bring in to the areas of emergency. Petroleum is a potent energy source, and will be required especially where large vehicles, and/or long distances are involved.
We will also need petroleum fuels for international commerce requiring a source to refuel aircraft, heavy freight, trains, and ships and boats that come to our shores, across our borders, and into our airports from other countries.
All of this is just for the United States, at the stage it is now in population and capabilities. Two or three decades for us, and even then we will continue to require petroleum products for manufacturing, for emergency generators, and also for aircraft, and for vehicles we must maintain for operating outside our country in the military and emergencies.
If we envision now the need for these changes throughout the world, and their demand for electricity, and what it will take to build the electric generating stations, putting the improved distribution grid across vast distances, developing the technicians, and all for the world that uses the above-mentioned minimum of 80-million barrels of oil a day. (And this need will increase rapidly as populations and possibilities grow.) How would the fuel usage of this amount of petroleum translate into the daily demand for electricity? France and Japan obtain about 80% of their electricity from nuclear reactors. The rest of the world will need to build thousands of nuclear reactors to supply the electricity needed, would have to build and sell to people who are able to afford the electric cars, and would have to establish an improved electric grid throughout some of the poorest areas of the world.
There is no way around the fact that implementing all this will take years, and tremendous amounts of money. And even then, most people in the world could not afford the cars. There will have to be millions and millions and millions manufactured. All of this will take a great deal of time, money and materials. And then people will have to pay for charging their batteries along with their other electric utility charges. There are 6-billion people in the world, and the world is on the move. This future will make demands on the world that can only be solved by petroleum products for decades while the changes that will allow a better future are in motion.
For the above reasons, the United States and the rest of the world will continue to require copious amounts of petroleum for decades to come.
So what can we do about it? We don’t want to keep importing most of most of the petroleum we’ll need. In Part Four: Drill HERE, Drill NOW we’ll find our solution.
Trackposted to Perri Nelson's Website, third world county, DragonLady's World, The World According to Carl, Shadowscope, DragonLady's World, , The Pink Flamingo, Leaning Straight Up, Dumb Ox Daily News, Democrat=Socialist, , Conservative Cat, and Right Voices, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.
Leave a comment