Victor Davis Hanson has once again written a great commentary, in the American Enterprise Institute’s magazine “The American”, on the costs of staying or leaving Iraq. This is a “must-read” article, as indicated by this excerpt:
Unlike the past tribal chaos in Afghanistan and Lebanon, the sectarian violence that would inevitably be unleashed in Iraq would play out atop the source of the world’s second-largest known oil reserve—close by the largest reserve and the third largest. The power of our enemies to exploit these reserves would threaten the American economy far more than any consequences of our defeat in Vietnam.Iran, with oil-rich southern Shiite Iraq as its protectorate, would be in a far better position to ignore United Nations sanctions, pressure the Gulf sheikdoms to curtail their oil production, increase aid to Hezbollah, and threaten tanker traffic across the Strait of Hormuz. If Iraqi oil production were shut down, or if a large portion of it came under Iranian control, Tehran might enjoy increased prices, capacity, or both—a reprieve and an incentive for more aggression for a regime now facing economic problems that threaten to destabilize the government and its costly nuclear and terrorist operations.
[. . . ]
But whatever economic scenarios one can conjure, the common denominator in age of terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and tight petroleum would be that America’s enemies would be able to sell more oil and buy more weapons without political, much less ethical, restraint.
Throughout he media, there are a great many arguments on both sides of the Iraq War. But no matter which body of arguments you favor, one thing is absolutely true: For the Radical Islamist, Iraq possesses a tremendous assetbase in land (for training camps and rapid Middle East deployment of terrorists) and in staggering oil profits (for terrorist causes). No matter what else happens now, there is one certainty for the future: either America will continue to help Iraq prevent Radical Islamist Terrorists from exploiting Iraq’s assets or those assets will be used by Terrorists against the world.
Radical Islam has had a major rebirth for overall theocratic power and the Sharia law. If America pulls out, Radical Islamists (and their ally, Iran) will end up controlling Iraq’s assets. They’ll think nothing of assassinating people who oppose them when they can, and of using terror as a tactic to keep people in line in areas they’ll control. As long as people in the world have something to trade, sell, or legislate to help the terrorists, there will always be those who will do it. Some will rationalize that they are trading money or power or something else the terrorists want, to save themselves or their family or their group, or their country for the time being. Some won’t bother to rationalize. All will fear the terrorists. Groups all over the world will fall in line with the victorious Terrorist power-base, with its immense assets.
Every argument about the Iraq War reduces in the end to this stark truth: Radical Islamist Terrorists will end up controlling the Iraqi assets unless America helps Iraqis keep the major part of those assets out of terrorist hands.
Either American interests “win” or Radical Islamists do. If America pulls out, or makes a date to pull out, the Terrorist Cause wins at that instant.
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